Hello! Ben here 👋.

This is the breakdown of the models I used to build ukheating.app.

Feel free to get in touch if this is the kind of thing that interests you!

Approach

In order to model the electrification of heating, I needed to model the supply & demand of all electricity in 2050. Thus, these are the five sub-models I had to build:

supply-and-demand.png

Many of these models deal with highly varying and intermittent quantities, such as sun, wind and heat demand. So where possible, I tried to use statistical approaches, to be able to say what would happen on the worst case days that occur say 10%, or 1% of the time.

Models

😎 Model 1: solar generation

🍃 Model 2: wind generation

🥵 Model 3: heat demand

🔌 Model 4: non-heat electricity demand

🔋 Model 5: energy storage allocation

Limitations

⚠️ Most significant limitations of this approach

Thanks

Thanks to Gridwatch, Sheffield Solar, When2Heat, and NASA for their datasets.

Many thanks to Dr Alex White for a lot of interesting conversations that led to this project.

Thanks also to Alex Howard, Will Rivers, Richard Hauxwell-Baldwin, Bean Beanland and Nick Huston for sharing their insights & expertise on this area with me.